- Testing Predictive Regression Models with Nonstationary Regressors
- Zongwu Cai, Yunfei Wang
- Journal of Econometrics 178 (2014) 4–14
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- Due to nonstationary (nearly integrated or integrated) regressors and the embedded endogeneity, a
linear predictive regression model produces biased coefficient estimates, which consequentially leads
to the conventional t-test to over-reject the misspecification test. In this paper, our aim is to find
an appropriate and easily implemented method for estimating and testing coefficients in predictive
regression models. We apply a projection method to remove the embedded endogeneity and then adopt
a two-step estimation procedure to manage both highly persistent and nonstationary predictors. The
asymptotic distributions of these estimates are established under α-mixing innovations, and different
convergence rates among the coefficients are derived for different persistent degrees. We also consider
the model with the regressor having a drift in its autoregressive model and show that the asymptotic
properties for the estimated coefficients are totally different from the case without drift. To conduct a
misspecification test, we rely on the deduced asymptotic distributions and use the Monte Carlo simulation
to find the appropriate critical values. A Monte Carlo experiment is then conducted to illustrate the
finite sample performance of our proposed estimator and test statistics. Finally, an empirical example
is examined to demonstrate the proposed estimation and testing method.
- JEL-Codes:
- Keywords: Endogeneity Misspecification test Nearly integrated process Predictive regression Unit root
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